Palin Is Romney’s Only Competition
October 5, 2011
by Lara Brown PhD
|Good thing Chris Christie did not run. He had four major problems: Iowa, New Hampshire, Nevada, and South Carolina. He’s too liberal for Iowa, too close to Wall Street for New Hampshire, too dismissive of Nevada, and too quiet about his religion for South Carolina. Unlikely to finish better than third in any of these races, his mediocre showings would have translated into little numerical support (even with these early states allocating convention delegates using proportional representation) and less media momentum.
Sarah Palin has none of these problems. She’s conservative (like 41% of the public – the largest ideological group), fed up with “crony capitalism,” a fan of western states with friends in Nevada, and while she does not preach from the podium like Perry, she “speaks fluently about her faith.”
Palin’s the only Republican in the field who can attract both Ron Paul’s supporters and Herman Cain’s supporters (an unscientific poll, but those who self-selected and cast ballots are likely to be GOP primary voters – note specifically, the difference for Cain when she’s in the race).
How does she defeat Romney and win the Republican nomination? The same way Obama did.
As I explained in The Ripon Forum nearly one year ago:
…the nomination contest is likely to follow one of two paths. One involves a competitive fight with no frontrunner, only a party favorite challenged by multiple candidates. The other involves an impressive insider and an electrically-charged outsider. Depending on whether Republicans reject or embrace their newly-elected [Tea Party] conservatives, their presidential nomination contest will be similar to the Democratic battles in either 2004 or 2008. Former Massachusetts Governor Mitt Romney (like John Kerry and Hillary Clinton) is respected, accomplished, and disciplined.
He is a safe choice and he’s most Republicans’ second choice. Former Alaska Governor Sarah Palin (like Howard Dean and Barack Obama) is exciting, unconventional, and audacious. She is a risky pick and she’s the Democrats’ most fervent wish. Be careful what you wish for.
The only thing I would take back now: Palin’s no longer “risky.” She’s relevant (see Solyndra and Merck). Even Kathleen Kennedy Townsend agrees her message is on target.
Perry’s the risk – and the one with numbers that already look like Dean’s after Iowa (scroll down to 2004).
Here’s how it happens for Palin:
With Bachmann and Perry fading, Palin wins Iowa, comes in second in New Hampshire and Nevada to Romney, she wins South Carolina, which then boosts her momentum and she wins Florida. Romney takes second in Iowa, South Carolina, and Florida. From there, the two trade wins and delegate leads until the April contests arrive and states begin allocating their delegates in winner-take-all fashion. At that point, the GOP closes ranks and rallies behind her because they realize that (a) she generates more enthusiasm than Romney, and (b) she is electable (because by this point, she will have won several elections).
Palin, not Christie, is the one principled leader who can save the Republican Party from nominating yet another uninspiring, unreliably conservative candidate who waited his turn and then lost (see McCain in 2008 and Dole in 1996). Palin can win and she, not George W. Bush, could become a Republican reformer like William McKinley (Jockeying, see pp.169-180). Consider, too, the eerie parallels between 2006-2012 and 1888-1896.
Good thing her people are making calls!
I have thought since the 2008 election, that this rogue woman will be our next President.
Agreed, a 2007 Ron Paul for President supporter here, but have moved to Palin this year. She is more dynamic than Dr. Paul. If she does not jump in, will be headed back to Ron Paul camp.
Can’t vote for Cain, being he was former Federal Reserve Governor and that is way too establishment for me.
While the media is busy with their polls about how Cain is having a surge and how Perry is taking a plunge, they’ve left off the part about who the real frontrunner is. It’s undecided. Polls show 18-24% are still undecided. People are simply waiting for somebody else to come along.
When Bill Clinton decided to run he didn’t even declare his intentions until mid October. This particular election is just bizarre because we have some people who have already been running for over a year. Then the pundits try to claim that this is normal, that anybody who was going to run is already in the race. That’s just silly. The race is still wide open. Candidates don’t even start filing their first state paperwork until the end of October and the only reason it’s that soon is because some states have been trying to move their primaries up.
This woman is not only a rock star, but she’s a very accomplished individual. (Small Business Owner, City Council Member, Mayor, Oil and Gas Commissioner, Gov., VP candidate) And she is a true conservative. Instead of shunning Sarah Palin, the Republican establishment should be embracing her. She is their only hope of beating Obama. You will not find a more stark contrast between two candidates. Channel your inner rogue, GOP. If not, you can bet you will go the way of the Whigs. Personally, I don’t care about the Republican party. I’m a registered Independent. I would wholeheartedly support an Independent run by Sarah Palin. If there is anyone who could pull it off, it’s this woman. Her supporters would walk through fire for her. And she’s got the perfect message for an Independent run. (Permanent Political Class; Crony Capitalism) She will not hurt for money, or press coverage. She will have her base of support, but also build on it. I really hope she’s thinkin’ about it.
Excellent article, and one with which I completely agree. Dr Brown (can I call you “Lara” *wink*) says some of the same things I’ve been saying for a long time, only she says it better.
I’m gonna have a whole lotta “I told you so”s to dole out come November 2012.
It’s rather unbelievable to me that nearly everyone in the media misses this based point. 75% of the Republican primary electorate is clearly looking for “Anybody But Romney”, and a literal parade of alternatives to Palin have been proposed and found wanting: Daniels, Pawlenty, Trump, Barbour, Bachmann, Perry and now Cain.
I see no reason why Palin doesn’t enter the race effectively tied with Romney for the lead, especially in the early states, and then rise from there as the rest of the Republican field fades into the background. Romney can expect to pick up the 1% who are currently backing Huntsman. A win in Iowa will bring a flood of good press, which will change her general election numbers, and then the rest will be history.
Run Sarah Run!
No poll can accurately gauge Palin’s support. She generates crowds. She has diehard supporters in small towns and cities all across America. She has met many of us in person and we are fiercely loyal to her.
We go outside the party machinery to support her (and those she supports) and we do so impressively.
Once people start to hear Sarah Palin speak and start to see the range of support she elicits her popularity will soar. The media has done their best to destroy her and she remains a top tier candidate with ground support no candidate can match.
Not even Obama.
Sarah Palin managed to bring the dying McCain campaign from 8 points down to the lead in just 6 days. She broght Nikki Haley from 4th place to first place in 2 weeks. This woman can take Iowa, NH and SC in just 2 months campaign! She has been campaigning in those states since 2010. YOU BET CHA!
Madame President!
What’s absolutely fascinating to me is just how desperate the pundit class is to proclaim that the “polls are closed” so to speak and, therefore, she shouldn’t even bother to enter the race. This morning in the aftermath of Christie saying he wasn’t going to run, I made a point of flipping through the three major cable channels for as long as I could stomach and, yep, someone on all three, Fox included, were more or less touting the talking point that “the GOP” now needed to close ranks behind one candidate, whatever that means at this stage of the game. It was clear they were talking about big wigs and the big donors, though, not voters when they said “closing ranks” and “the GOP” in that context.
Head desk.
And they wonder why Palin appeals to so many after the last decade of political and media shenanigans.
Palin in 2012 would be a dream come true for me but I think we are going to be stuck with Curtis (Obama) vs Ken(Romney).
JJ: Absolutely – call me Lara – my students are the only ones whom I make call me “Prof or Dr Brown”
George: Absolutely – Romney is Kerry, and while I imagine that he will win the nomination if Palin doesn’t jump in, I’ll not sure there will be enough enthusiasm for him among conservatives for him to beat Obama. That said, the conditions are “bad enough” (unemployment, deficit, debt, and housing crisis – still!!)that Obama may lose regardless. I just think that Palin’s path to winning is a lot brighter than Romney’s road to claiming the White House.
BevWKY: The Washington folks are scared. Plain and simple. Why I linked to what I wrote about William McKinley is this – he had to “go around” the bosses to win his party’s nomination and certainly, the bosses were not pleased with this. I see Palin in the same way. And well, I also just think it would be funny (ironic) if Palin won, and she became the reformer that McKinley was (although he did in ways that realigned the GOP with the Progressives and she would do it in ways that would realign the GOP with the Jacksonian – read in modern parlance Reagan – Democrats) when that was exactly what Karl Rove wanted Bush to so badly become.
Thanks, everyone, for your comments!!
This article allows me to have some hope in America! I’ve felt this way about Palin since the Convention Speech in 2008. I felt she was a God-send there and even more so now. I’ve read her books, watch the movie (The Undefeated) and listened to some interviews with people very close to her, her husband TODD and her brother Chuck Heath, I have loved her speeches and her ideas, but more than that, I believe her. I believe she’d rather be home with her family but loves America enough so that the last 20 years she’s been out there fighting the good fight. Now she is not alone, there are millions of us who think like she thinks, who know this is the last chance we have. The good news for Independents is that Sarah (until the 2008 election ) had an 80% approval. People from all sides realizing that she knows how to lead! So thank you again for this article and I urge all people to listen to the interviews about Palin. She is a God-send for real!
Sarah’s Daytona airport speech did it for me and my big brother. It looks like the Marxists are doing a trial run right now as a prelude to ginning up a class war insurrection and massive race riots next summer. All so a losing Obama could declare a state of emergency and cancel elections. Sarah is the only one I trust to handle such a hypothetical situation with intelligence and strength. I think even many of her supporters underestimate her. Ready when you are, Sarah.
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