The Pundits Are Wrong: Palin’s Got the Best Shot
September 13, 2011
by Lara Brown PhD
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Poring over the head-to-head match-ups looking for a divining rod for the election, most professional political pundits have declared that Romney is the “electable” Republican candidate.
What these analysts fail to acknowledge as they debate the tautological concept of “electability” (only by being elected can one be shown to be electable) is that the presidential contest will look completely different – different levels of turnout, different states in play, different kinds of media coverage – depending on which candidate wins the Republican nomination.
And the reality is this: If sexism doesn’t derail her candidacy (and given that more Americans still prefer a male boss to a female boss, this possibility should not be lightly dismissed), Sarah Palin has the best chance of winning – not just the nomination, but also the general election.
To understand why, one must start with Obama’s standing as an incumbent president seeking a second term for his party. James Campbell found that since 1868 more than “two-thirds of the twenty-two incumbents seeking reelection were reelected…[and] more than two-thirds of in-party candidates seeking a second term for their party were successful” (pgs. 104-106). Leaving aside the economy, Obama is heavily favored to win.
The poor economic conditions do complicate matters. As Campbell also showed, since 1948 “only one of the six in-party candidates (Bill Clinton in 1996) with third year economic growth rates [measured by GDP in constant dollars] below 3 percent entered the campaign ahead in the polls” (pgs. 137-139). Given that the annual estimate for GDP in 2011 now stands at 2.5 percent, it is no surprise that Obama is down in the polls. Still, this does not mean he’ll lose. Only Carter managed that feat (Bush Sr. was seeking his party’s fourth term).
Incumbent presidential elections turn on turnout, not persuasion. Voters – including Independents – decide long before they cast their ballot whether they believe the president deserves a second term. Recall that in the 2004 (the last incumbent reelection campaign), the polls all summer long revealed that only about 7 percent of likely voters were undecided. This was not the case in 2008 (the number of undecided voters did not shrink to single digits until after the bottom fell out of the economy in September) because it was an “open seat” election where voters – especially Independents – wrestle more with their preferred candidate.
Because the 2012 election will be about turnout, the Republicans need to foster high levels of voter enthusiasm and engagement. If they do not, then Obama will likely be reelected. Recall that Obama pulled over 8.5 million more votes than McCain in 2008, meaning he can lose five or six million votes and still win, if the GOP selects as un-exciting a candidate as McCain was.
The GOP needs conflict and competition – not comity and civility. They need a war, not a border skirmish. The GOP needs to inject as much uncertainty into the race as possible by picking an electrifying candidate and putting more states in play. They also need someone whose message is not so extreme that they actually depress votes among those Republican-leaning Independents.
They need Palin. She is adored by those aligned with the Tea Party. She brings out crowds like no one except Obama. Unlike Perry, she holds some policy positions with wide appeal (only surprising to those in the mainstream media who failed to take note of her political career and track record in Alaska). She is running in third and she has yet to even announce.
Palin is also the embodiment of what my work (Jockeying for the American Presidency) found successful aspirants are in the Modern Party Era: “Those…perceived by their fellow partisans as charismatic leaders with strong ideological visions and as outsiders who would shake up Washington’s ‘insider’ (read: broken and corrupt) culture” (pg.220).
Since 2008, Palin has helped remake the Republican Party. Now it’s time for the GOP to wake up and realize that she’s the only one positioned to take them to White House this cycle.
I’ve had so many friends email me about Gardasil, the vaccine for cervical cancer. Many are getting mixed advice from their OBGYN’s and pediatricians about giving the vaccine to their young daughters because of possible side effects. The fact that Perry signed an executive order back in 2007 is all I need to hear. Corporate interests first – girls’ lives second.
I’d like to see a president sympathetic and simpatico to issues like this!
Thank you for the enlightenment. I may consider voting her if she opts to run. I think she is the real deal as of now.
Thank you for an honest, straight-forward article. I became a Sarah Palin for certain when John McCain picked her as his VP. I became a former Democrat on May 31, 2008. Sarah Palin will be the next President of the United States – we hobbits, terrorists, teabaggers, barbarians are in stealth mode – there are many more of us than the general public thinks there are………………..
Right On Amy! I’m so glad to read your views (as they are so similar to my own) on Gov. Palin. I just adore her and her whole family and life and almost all of her policies & stands on issues. I would vote for her (again) in a nano second! I have fun thinking of what a fantastic cabinet she would create as President! It gives ME hope! For the longest time (as an X Lib) I would try to find anything I could DISAGREE with that mattered. There never was anything and since 08 three never has been……… NOTHING! I am 100 percent FINE with what ever she does. That to me is incredible. I hope/pray she runs and announces SOON!
excuse the prior typos – I do need my prescription upgraded! lol
again pardon me Dr. Brown this article is yours and I am still glad to read it!! And agree with it! Sorry My poor vision missed the correct author! I shall quit now while I am ahead. (snicker)
Her political history would have been good enough, but add to that the ceaseless vetting, books and their ‘fact finders’, 24,000 emails forced open, fighting Obama since even before ‘Death Panels’ and long before a campaign . . .
Sarah Palin has earned trust. And she has earned my support. Sarah Palin 2012
The pundits are wrong, amen to that. Many of them are trying to say it’s too late for Palin to enter the race, but in September of 1991 Bill Clinton wasn’t even a candidate yet. He didn’t declare until October.
“And the reality is this: If sexism doesn’t derail her candidacy (and given that more Americans still prefer a male boss to a female boss, this possibility should not be lightly dismissed), Sarah Palin has the best chance of winning – not just the nomination, but also the general election.”
That’s a big IF, but I hope and pray we can overcome the sexism this election.
Also, the opening sentence of your otherwise wonderful article has a typo with “pouring” instead of “poring.” I hope you don’t mind the correction, and can possibly fix it.
Exceptionally insightful and articulate article Lara.
Well done! Brava.
I trust Sarah and her vision on how to fix Washington
among many other hurdles and bring America back to what we know and love. And she will have a hard working, honest and intelligent Cabinet.
President Palin – just imagine how wonderful that would feel.
She would have my vote. Who do you think would be a likely VP for her? I don’t think Perry or Romney could take the ego blow, I like Cain and also Newt who seems to be content to be the Party coach. I am really pleased with the field of Republican candidates. There are several who would make fine VP’s or cabinet members. Also when comparing Palin to Bill Clinton remember he won the Presidency with something like 42% of the vote. If the “Americans Elect” people provide an option for Democrats who can’t vote for Obama or a Republican but still want to vote their local ballot the Republican candidate could take it with far under 50% like B Clinton did.
Excellent article. I will absolutely support her over the other contenders.
I was not always a Palin fan. Yes, she injected much into the 2008 election, but my attitude was McCain was a bozo and had no business running for president, and therefore Palin was part of that package. Initially, I bought into the media spin about her personally. It wasn’t until I started studying her insights, and then later viewing The Undefeated, that everything turned around for me. I am on board her bus all the way. Sarah will have my support, including financially. As a man, I have no problem with a woman leader of her caliber.
If she is running, and I believe that she is…we’re looking at the next President of the United States when we look at Sarah Palin. People look at me like I’m crazy when I say that, and I say don’t do that…because before this thing is over you’ll vote for her and like it!
She is the only serious candidate in this election. Oh if she loses the primary (which is her only real obstacle) then I’ll vote for whoever carries the GOP brand, but I won’t be as excited about my vote on election day. Only Palin has the ability to ignite the base enough for a sure win, in my opinion. If she can win the primary, winning the general election is downhill from there!
Unfortunately sexism still exists in the US. Other countries have had very effective female leaders. But I still believe that Americans are so fed up with the leadership we’ve had and that Gov. Palin’s message is so effective, they will support her.
I’ve been a supporter of Gov. Palin since 2008. I, too, believe she has the best shot at unseating 0bama. When she appeared in Pella IA, she brought out 1-2,000 people as compared to Bachmann who brought out 250 in her hometown to hear her announce. When Palin appeared in Indianola IA, about 3,000 people turned out in a rain storm, and it turned out to be the biggest political event in IA this year. In April over 6,000 people showed up to hear her speak in the cold and snow of Madison WI, while Donald Trump, whom the media was hyping at that time, drew only 1,500 in sunny Boca Raton FL.
I say, pay no attention to the talking heads, and their bogus polls. Palin can win the nomination, and the general election as well.
Two points:
1) The article notes that “She brings out crowds like no one except Obama.” Sarah’s crowds are real — not the bussed in astroturf complete with phony swooners, union thugs and welfare queens – let’s see bambi give a speech out in a rainstorm in a muddy iowa field with people showing up VOLUNTARILY from all corners of the country – ON THEIR OWN DIMES.
2) Sexism? == why is this notion suddenly being pushed? never heard it brought up in discussion related to any democrat women — candidates or office holders — is sexism more prevalent than racism? –
My two cents Ms. Lara,
I don’t find sexism to be involved at all in the up-coming election. Sarah will win, hands down, but her fight will be against the PERMANENT RULING CLASS composed of both DemocRATS and Repubicans.
We may as well admit that there probably will not be a single major News outlet backing her either, but that is not much of a problem since Sarah controls her own message through the “new media”. More importantly, people show up by the 1000′s (soon to be 100′s of thousands) at the mere whisper of a rumor that Sarah is in the area. NO other candidate can beat that.
When you look at “blah” (any other candidate) you find out about all the “not quite criminal activities” you see every other person running for office of the President. Then look at Sarah, Vetted for 3+ years under an electron microscope and you find nothing other than an honest, true-blue, god-fearing LEADER.
Sorry, lots more to say but I’ll stop now. Thank-you for an honestly reported article.
Yes, sexism is far more prevalent among the people who run Corporate Media and the Permanent Ruling Class than racism. Even their women are indoctrinated to accept sexism and misogyny.
And I agree Palin will be fighting the Permanent Ruling Class of both parties who have constructed and profited from this pile of problems we are forced to live with. Sexism is recognized as sexism by regular people it’s the elitists who are playing the Emperors New Clothes with sexism.
Who knew ANYTHING about Sarah before August of 2008? I remember searching for SOMETHING (anything) about her on YouTube right after McCain announced she would be his running mate. There was a Glen Beck segment with her on it (regarding special needs children) where he voiced his admiration of her. And then there was a home-made piece declaring much of what everyone else was wondering: “Who is Sarah Palin”.
I have learned a lot about Sarah, and continue to learn and admire more and more!!! She is a model of accomplishment that we all can and should aspire to be.
I went to my first Tea Party rally in Indianola, IA two weeks ago. We travelled all the way from Chicago, others from much further. I LOVED seeing Sarah, but I very much enjoyed ALL the peole who came out to see her! It was such a LOVE FEST that I was giving out my phone number to college students asking them to stop by for dinner!
Thanks for this great article! I pray people pay attention when she does announce and THEY MUST watch “The Undefeated!” They will ‘get it’ then!
It is becoming clear that both democrats and republicans are afraid that if Sarah Palin runs she will shake up the status quo. This whole mythology of not being electable or not smart enough to be President is all a bunch of hogwash and more evidence of how scared they all are. After researching her record as Governor (by the way the dems all loved her when she went after the big oil companies)I have no doubt she would turn this country around. Most people I talk to agree that she would be a great candidate but are afraid other people wouldn’t vote for her. After looking at the current line up at the debates I say time to be bold and unafraid.
Thanks for the great article. Run Sarah Run!
Dawnelle:
Not to worry about the typos and mistaken identities – I, too, had a typo (pouring instead of the correct, poring) – and thanks to Irene, it got caught and fixed!
And speaking of Irene – I agree with you on the “big IF” when it comes to sexism. Politics is a rougher game for women than for men. That said, I think that if anyone woman can make it through this cycle, and one way or another come out ahead as Hillary did – it is Governor Palin.
Quite frankly, I’d be thrilled if both the Dems and the Reps nominated a woman for president! We’ve had 54 elections since 1796 (Washington’s elections had no challengers)and no woman has ever made it to the position of major party nominee. And until such time as we have two women nominees competing for the presidency – I’m for every woman who tries!
Hi Bes:
On the VP issue – personally, I imagine she would choose someone with an “outsider” persona, but also someone who has “insider” knowledge. Because the reality is that if you want to change Washington – you have to know something about how it works (just think of how many presidents have hit the rocks trying to simply coast by on reform rhetoric once they get to DC – whether it is Grover Cleveland or Bill Clinton – they all need good “insider” advice – Ronald Reagan had David Stockman). So, saying this, I imagine her picking Gov. Haley Barbour of Mississippi or Gov. Mitch Daniels of Indiana – both have vast experience inside Washington and deep in the ranks of the Republican Party. Both are also well-respected across the conservative political spectrum. Both are also governors, which would help her preserve the sense that “outsiders” are coming to take over. Daniels would be a particularly good pick because Indiana, while it is very likely to go Republican this time around, it did go for Obama in 2008 and so, it would be good for her to pick him to pull that state into her column.
Thanks everyone for the comments!! Glad you enjoyed the article!
Awesome…a light shone from her that first day in
Ohio in 2008. This country needs a true leader, not a politician, and can there be anyone better that fits that description? Her campaign will be like none other; An awakening more than a political pursuit. For such a time as this, she will save this nation and it’s people from catastrophe. God bless the USA and God less this land.
PALIN-RUBIO 2012
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