For those who have been watching the women governors’ races, we lost two devastatingly close races Tuesday night. Republican Karen Handel of Georgia and Democrat Margaret Anderson Kelliher of Minnesota, both their party’s moderates and both with the best chance to win in the general election, lost their races by razor, razor thin margins. Handel’s loss was less than 4/10 of a percent, fewer than 2500 votes. Kelliher’s loss was less than 1500 votes. Both women conceded Wednesday at around noon. Now Georgia and Minnesota will have to wait at least four years to have their first woman governor.

Last week I posted a summary of all the governors races with women candidates as well as some historical stats. There are still some primaries to get through and the general elections are heating up. It is going to be an exciting season – lots of states have the chance to get their first woman governor AND, despite last night’s losses, I believe our country still has a chance to break its record for the number of women elected to serve as governor. The record is currently 6. We can beat that!

If you agree, then you are in for a month of excitement. We’ve got two big primary days left and they are both in August. Mark your calendars: 8/17 and 8/24.

Next Tuesday 8/17 turn your eyes to Wyoming. This is big! If Rita Meyer wins the Republican primary, polls show we are almost guaranteed to have a woman governor. If Leslie Petersen wins for the Democrats, Wyoming WILL have a woman governor. Lucky state!

The following Tuesday 8/24 is also a big one and could deliver us two women general election candidates. Polls show that Democrat Deb Markowitz has a fighting chance to beat the Republican. So let’s hope Vermont Democrats make the smart choice on the 24th. The Florida primary is also on this day and Alex Sink is expected to win for the Democrats.

Here’s the latest analysis and polling on all the races.

Summary:

• 6 states will likely have the chance to elect their first woman governor (CA, FL, ME, NM, OK, SC).
• 12 likely general election female candidates: 6 Republicans, 6 Democrats
• 2 guaranteed (NM, OK). 3 are likely to win (AZ, SC, WY). 2 are tied (CA, FL). 2 have a good chance (ME, VT). In order to beat our record, we will need all of our likely’s and both of our ties or a surprise or two in ME and VT. We can still beat the record but it will be tight.

2 Guaranteed:

New Mexico
Will have its FIRST woman governor!
Diane Denish (D-NM)
Susana Martinez (R-NM)

Oklahoma
Will have its FIRST woman governor!
Jari Askins (D-OK), Lt. Governor
Mary Fallin (R-OK), US House of Representatives

3 Likely:

Arizona
Jan Brewer (R-AZ), Governor
7/23 polling shows strong lead, near 20 points, over Democratic opponent.

South Carolina
Nikki Haley (R-SC), State House of Representatives
8/2 polling shows a double digit lead over Democrat opponent.
Could be her state’s FIRST woman governor.

Wyoming
Primary 8/17
Rita Meyer (R-WY), State Auditor
Leslie Petersen (D-WY), Chair of Wyoming Democratic Party
Both women have a strong chance of winning their primaries.
All polls show Republicans will win the governorship.

2 Tied:

California
Meg Whitman (R-CA), former President and CEO of eBay
8/4 polling indicates a very close race with Democratic opponent Jerry Brown, who served as governor 1975-1983 and is currently the state’s Attorney General.
Could be her state’s FIRST woman governor.

Florida
Primary 8/24
Alex Sink (D-FL), State Chief Financial Officer
Very likely to win her primary.
8/4 polling shows her tied with likely Republican opponent, Rick Scott. Independent, Bud Chiles, is snagging votes from both parties.
Could be her state’s FIRST woman governor.

2 There’s hope:

Maine
Libby Mitchell (D-ME), State Senate
7/19 polling shows her running just behind Republican LePage in polls. There is an Independent in the race, a former Democrat.
Could be her state’s FIRST woman governor.

Vermont
Primary 8/24
Deb Markowitz (D-VT), Secretary of State
Susan Bartlett (D-VT) Primary 8/24, State Senate
6/23 polling shows Markowitz is the only Democrat with a chance of winning. Republican Lt. Governor Brian Dubie only leads by 7 points.

Unlikely:

Wisconsin
Primary 9/14
Marcia Mercedes Perkins (D-WI)
Not discussed in polls.

New Hampshire
Primary 9/14
Karen Testerman (R-NH)
Not discussed in polls.