There’s been so much press recently about women in politics. “2010 is the year of the woman“. Is this really true?

OK Governor General Election Opponents

I think governors races are a good indicator because it tells us what is happening in all 50 states. Which ones trust a woman to head their state? I have a particular interest in the governors races because many Presidents and Vice Presidents come from Governors’ mansions. I’m wanting a woman in the White House, and I’m sure as heck not wanting to wait 25 years. That’s why I’ve been so encouraged by all the women running this year. But how does this compare to elections past? According to the Center for American Women in Politics:

In 1994, a record 34 (18D, 15R, 1ACP) women filed for gubernatorial races and a record 10 (6D, 3R, 1IND) won their primaries. In 2002 and 2006, the record was tied with 10 (9D, 1R) and 10 (5D, 5R) women winning their primaries.

This year, we have only 20 running, 10 from each party. So far, 7 have won primaries. There is a chance we will match or beat the primary record this year. However, I’m interested in the end result – actual elections. How many women governors will our country elect this year? Can we beat our country’s record? Can we make history? In 1994, Only 1 woman (NJ) was elected. Four women were elected in 2002 (HI, MI, AZ, KS) and six were elected in 2006 (AK, AZ, CT, HI, KS, MI). Six is the record for number of women elected as governor in an election year. We can beat that!

Here’s where we are starting. Six women currently serve as governors: Jennifer Granholm (D-MI) and Linda Lingle (R-HI) are term limited and cannot run for re-election. M. Jodi Rell (R-CT) is not running for re-election. Beverly Perdue (D-NC) and Christine Gregoire (D-WA) are still serving their terms. Jan Brewer (R-AZ) is the only incumbent running for re-election.

Now, let’s look at possibilities! See the list below of women running and a quick analysis of their chances of winning based on the latest polls.

We’ve got 2, maybe 3 guarantees! New Mexico and Oklahoma WILL elect a woman governor as both parties have nominated a woman. Super! Mark your calendar for August 17 and turn your eyes to Wyoming. We could have another woman versus woman general election race for governor here as well. All polls show Wyoming will elect a Republican governor this year. Thank you to Sarah Palin for her endorsement of Rita Meyer (R) in this race. This could make the difference. South Carolina is also looking likely elect a Republican woman, Nikki Haley, and polls show Jan Brewer (AZ) will get re-elected. If three ties go our way, women will head California, Florida and Georgia. Meg Whitman (R) is in a dead heat with her Democratic opponent. As well, Karen Handel (R) of Georgia, who is expected to win her run off 8/10, and Alex Sink (D), who is likely to win the Florida primary on 8/24, are also basically tied with their likely general election opponents. Libby Mitchel (D) of Maine is running just behind her opponent in polls but there is still hope. Deb Markowitz (D) of Vermont has a fighting chance of winning against a Republican opponent. However, she has to win the Democratic primary 8/24 first. Polls show Democrats are likely to win the governorship in Minnesota. So, we could have another woman governor if Margaret Kelliher, who is currently trailing behind her primary opponent, wins the Democratic primary 8/10. Keep your eyes on these two primaries coming up this month. There are also two women running in Wisconsin and one in New Hampshire but polls show them unlikely to win their primaries.

Guess how many of these women are running to be the FIRST governor in their states? All of them but three!!! That’s right. CA, FL, GA, ME, MN, NM, OK, SC, and WI have NEVER had a woman governor. Wyoming had one way back in 1925 and Vermont in 1985. New Hampshire has had two women governors in 1982 and 1997, but one only served for a week. Aren’t you curious to see what other states have never had a woman governor? There are too many to list. Check the Center for American Women and Politics for a election results by state. Wikipedia has some handy information too. But 2010 is the year we will take a big chunk off that list. Ladies! We’re definitely gonna have some firsts this year! Lots!

Just for fun, let’s do some quickie analysis and go for best case scenario. Women win both primaries in WY. We get all of our ties (CA, FL, GA) and our likely’s in SC and AZ. Including our guarantees (OK, NM), that’s 7 new women governors plus 1 re-elected. If MN Democrats choose a woman, that’s another likely. If VT Democrats choose a woman, she falls into the “there’s hope” category with ME. That brings us to electing 11 women governors. It could happen. Seriously. Even if best case scenario doesn’t happen, the odds are that we WILL beat the record of 6. Maybe 2010 really is the year of the woman!

Here’s the list of women still in the running:

Guaranteed:

Diane Denish (D-NM); Susana Martinez (R-NM); WILL HAVE A WOMAN GOVERNOR

Jari Askins (D-OK); Mary Fallin (R-OK); WILL HAVE A WOMAN GOVERNOR

Likely:

Jan Brewer (R-AZ)
Strong lead, near 20 points, over Democratic opponent

Nikki Haley (R-SC);
Has about a 12 point lead on Democrat opponent

Tied:
Meg Whitman (R-CA)
Basically tied with Jerry Brown

Alex Sink (D-FL); Paula Dockery (R-FL) primary 8/24
Current polling shows Alex Sink tied with either Republican opponent, MCollum or Scott.

Karen Handel (R-GA) expected to win in run off 8/10
Tied with Roy Barnes, former Dem governor

There’s hope:

Libby Mitchell (D-ME)
Running just behind Republican LePage in polls. There is an Independent in the race, a former Democrat.

Unlikely:

Barbara Lawton (D-WI); Marcia Mercedes Perkins (D-WI); 9/14
Neither are being discussed in polls so assume neither has a chance of winning primary.

Karen Testerman (R-NH); primary 9/14
Not being discussed in polls, assume primary chances low

Primaries to watch:

Rita Meyer (R-WY); Leslie Petersen (D-WY) Primary 8/17
Both women have a strong chance at winning their primaries.
All polls show Republicans will win the governorship.

Deb Markowitz (D-VT); Susan Bartlett (D-VT) Primary 8/24
Polls show Markowitz is the only one getting close to Republican Lt Governor Dubie within less than 10 points.

Margaret Anderson Kelliher (DFL-MN) primary 8/10
Currently trailing behind Democratic opponent (Dayton) by about 13 points but gaining.
Both Democrats are likely to win against Republican opponent.